Elon Musk predicts ‘agonizingly slow’ Cybercab and Optimus rollout. But he’s not giving up on Tesla’s big bet on robots
Tesla's ambitious bet on autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots is heading toward a humbler beginning than investors might have hoped. On Tuesday, CEO Elon Musk acknowledged that the production ramp for both the Cybercab robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot would be "agonizingly slow" in their initial phases, a frank admission that tempers years of bullish predictions about these products transforming Tesla's business.<br><br>The statement marks a notable shift in tone from Musk. While he has previously painted vivid pictures of a future dominated by self-driving technology and robots performing tasks humans find undesirable, his latest comments suggest the path to that future will be far more gradual than some might expect. Yet despite this cautionary language, Musk's underlying message remains resolute: these products represent Tesla's long-term value proposition, and the company is not backing away from the investment required to bring them to market.<br><br>The timing is significant. Tesla is scheduled to begin limited production of the Cybercab at its Giga Texas facility in April 2026, with the sleek two-seater robotaxi designed to operate without steering wheels or pedals. The Optimus humanoid robot, meanwhile, is expected to see low-volume production by the end of 2026, with Musk previously stating that high-volume manufacturing could follow thereafter. These are not distant aspirations but concrete milestones just months away.<br><br>When confronted on social media about the Cybercab production beginning in fewer than 100 days, Musk responded with a lesson in manufacturing reality. "Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve," he wrote. "The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast."<br><br>This explanation reveals the core challenge Tesla faces with both products. Unlike the Model Y or Model 3, which built on established manufacturing processes and supply chains developed over years, the Cybercab and Optimus represent almost entirely new manufacturing ecosystems. The Cybercab requires custom components designed specifically for autonomous operation, while the Optimus robot demands the development of manufacturing processes for a product category that has never before achieved commercial scale.<br><br>Musk's acknowledgment of production challenges echoes broader industry trends. Tesla has faced manufacturing hurdles before, most notably during the ramping of Model 3 production in 2017 and 2018, when the company pushed workers to unsustainable levels to meet ambitious targets. This time, the company appears to be attempting a more measured approach, at least in public messaging. Yet the scale of the challenges is arguably greater. The Optimus robot, in particular, requires breakthroughs across robotics, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing that are genuinely novel.<br><br>The humanoid robot project has become central to Tesla's long-term value proposition. During recent investor discussions, Musk has suggested that Optimus could eventually represent a larger portion of Tesla's business value than automotive sales. This is a remarkable claim that reflects both the scale of the opportunity and the speculative nature of the valuation. The robot is designed to perform tasks ranging from factory work to household assistance, though actual deployment remains theoretical.<br><br>Tesla's employees appear to be prepared for an intensive period ahead. In October, the company's vice president of AI software told staff that 2026 would be the "hardest year" of their lives. This internal messaging aligns with Musk's public statements about the manufacturing complexity involved. The company faces the daunting task of manufacturing almost the entire supply chain from scratch, as Musk noted in earlier comments comparing the production challenge to the "slowest, dumbest, least lucky thing out of 10,000 unique items."<br><br>The investor implications are substantial. Much of Tesla's near trillion-dollar valuation is predicated on successful execution of these robotics initiatives. Some analysts have suggested that if Tesla successfully scales Cybercab and Optimus production, the company could reach valuations of two to three trillion dollars by the end of 2026. Conversely, delays or technical challenges could significantly impact investor confidence.<br><br>For the Cybercab specifically, Tesla faces the additional challenge of establishing its autonomous ride-hailing service in the real world. The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin last June, but the operation remains limited in scope, with a small number of Model Y vehicles operating in the city and human safety monitors still present in the vehicles. This real-world testing ground is valuable but also creates pressure to demonstrate meaningful progress toward fully autonomous, commercially viable operation.<br><br>The production goal for Cybercab is ambitious even with the slower ramp Musk now envisions. Tesla has stated it is targeting eventual production of two million units annually, with Musk suggesting the final number could reach four million. For context, this would represent a production volume larger than many established automotive manufacturers. Reaching even a fraction of this figure would require significant capital investment and global manufacturing capability.<br><br>Musk's more realistic public posture may actually serve Tesla's long-term interests. By setting measured expectations now, the company creates room to surprise investors with better-than-expected progress. The market has become increasingly skeptical of Musk's timeline predictions, so acknowledging manufacturing challenges upfront could build credibility. At the same time, the fundamental thesis remains unchanged: Tesla is betting its future on technologies that could genuinely transform transportation and labor.<br><br>The coming months will test whether Tesla's more cautious language matches the reality of what unfolds at Giga Texas in April. The company will need to demonstrate that it can produce functioning Cybercabs at scale while simultaneously advancing the Optimus robot program. The stakes are enormous, not just for Tesla investors but for the broader question of whether advanced robotics and autonomous vehicles can finally transition from prototype to practical production reality.